Bangladesh’s Political Turmoil and Impact on Regional Stability
The political landscape has shifted in Bangladesh following the resignation and escape of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on 5 August 2024. The President has appointed an interim government under the leadership of Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus as a Chief Advisor to the government with 17 ministers. Nationwide student protests are regarded as the trigger point of the government's collapse. However, some deep-rooted problems also ignited the nationwide protest. Since these protests, regional security has shifted dramatically and there are apprehensions of a refugee crisis in neighbouring countries, especially India. Being the second largest economy in South Asia, Bangladesh holds an important position in maintaining the stability of the region. Political chaos and violent protests will significantly delay the economic growth that South Asia is experiencing.
What led to the current situation?
The nationwide protests were ignited by a controversial policy of providing 56% reservations to specific groups in government jobs, out of which 30% was only for the descendants of the freedom fighters who fought in the Liberation War of 1971. In 2018, due to immense pressure, the Hasina government abolished the whole reservation system. However, the judicial overruling of that order in June 2024 sparked fresh protests among students and job seekers. This was the beginning of peaceful protests which eventually turned violent when former PM Hasina called the protesting students ‘rajakaar’, a derogatory term used in Bangladesh for supporters of Pakistan during the war of 1971.
However, the ensuing spark of violence was the result of the inefficient and corrupt administration of the Sheikh Hasina government. Subir Bhaumik writes that despite good economic performance, Sheikh Hasina had lost touch with the Bangladeshi public. He cites the rigging of elections, comparing Bangladesh with Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt as a police state and cracking down on opposition leaders through illegal arrests. This led to a decline in democratic legitimacy, creating a gap in trust between the public and the government. This whole episode has left Bangladesh and its neighbouring states in a panicky situation due to their interdependence.
Perplexity of the Region
Bangladesh is grappling with multiple socio-economic tensions following this event. Protection of the human rights of minorities has become one of the biggest challenges for the interim government. Reports suggest that there have several incidents of communal violence concerning attacks on places of worship of Hindus, Christians and other minority groups. Hindus, comprising 8% of the population, have started demonstrations for their civil and political rights. There is an increased apprehension of persecution of minorities and outflux of these communities from Bangladesh into neighbouring countries as asylum seekers, further destabilising the surrounding region.
Border crossings have already occurred in countries like India. Bangladesh only shares land boundaries with two countries, India and Myanmar. People who tend to flee from Bangladesh will likely move towards India due to its political and economic stability as compared to Myanmar. DW reports that thousands of Bangladeshi Hindus are waiting at the India-Bangladesh border to cross. India’s Border Security Force has tried to stop them and send them back. However, due to civil unrest, the possibility of attacks made people skeptical to go back. Not only the social sentiments but also the economy of Bangladesh is likely to get a setback due to rising uncertainty.
Bangladesh is an important economic partner of South-Asian countries, especially India. Having the second-fastest growing GDP of South Asia, she is graduating from a least developed country (LDC) to a developing economy by the year 2026 (ADB). Under her 15 years of rule, Sheikh Hasina’s economic policies have been praised around the world. Bangladesh has surpassed India in terms of GDP per capita in 2023 and social indicators are also showing progress with the Infant mortality rate reduced to 24.1 in 2022 leaving India behind (The Hindu). Although South Asia is one of the least integrated regions of the world in terms of trade, Bangladesh and India have the capacity to boost the whole region's economy because they maintain the largest proportion of bilateral trade within it. Foreign direct investment data also shows huge foreign investments during Hasina’s term (World Bank). The current crisis would seriously blow the exponential growth of Bangladesh, putting a dent in the intra-regional trade. Regional blocs are likely to grow skeptical about the prospect of future ties with Bangladesh.
Inflation and unemployment are at all-time highs (Reuters) and due to political uncertainty, local as well as foreign investors will be reluctant to invest. Its impact has already started rippling in the adjacent markets. Marico, an Indian consumer goods manufacturer, has a majority share of its business in Bangladesh and its shares on the National Stock Exchange of India fell 6% just two days after the PM’s resignation despite an overall upward trend of the Indian market (Nikkei Asia). Bangladesh’s sovereign debt rating has already been downgraded from BB to B+ by S&P even before the crisis, which will further impact her creditworthiness.
BIMSTEC and ASEAN are two important regional associations that hold this region together with economic, political and cultural ties. Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has emerged as a bridge between South Asia and South-East Asia. As the name suggests, it promotes regional prosperity through economic cooperation and intra-regional trade. Its secretariat has been established in Bangladesh. Due to the important power of its member states, BIMSTEC shares 4.5% of the global GDP (BIMSTEC). Projects like joint infrastructure, connectivity, cultural exchange and trade agreements are the focal areas. Political instability in Bangladesh will hamper the progression of economic cooperation in the region.
ASEAN and Bangladesh relations hold a significant position due to Bangladesh’s geographical location. To promote regional connectivity, Bangladesh could be a potential gateway of regional highways from South Asia to South-East Asia, according to ASEAN. Bangladesh already established cooperation agreements with Cambodia and Myanmar for trade, security and connectivity through regional highways. Bangladesh has also accepted Rohingya refugees from Myanmar and provided them shelter in Cox’s Bazar district, with the whole settlement having an estimated 600,000 refugees (UNHCR). Current developments in Bangladesh will impact the humanitarian assistance provided by international organisations if the interim government does not settle the crisis.
For India, the current turmoil in Bangladesh has the potential to become a nightmare. Earlier, Bangladesh used to be a hotbed for Indian separatist leaders, operating from Bangladesh to destabilise India by working with terrorist groups. Sheikh Hasina’s government helped to eradicate these terror camps due to her strong ties with New Delhi (IISS). Now, in her absence and amid uncertainty about the interim government, these rebel groups can again try to establish their old links within Bangladesh and increase insurgency in India which can gravely impact her internal security. Bangladesh’s future lies in strong relations with regional powers, actions of the interim government and the successful re-election of a democratic government to pave the way for normalisation.
Towards Stability or Chaos?
Bangladesh’s interim government assumed charge on August 8, 2024. Within a few days, the government’s newly appointed National Security Advisor Lt. Gen (retd.) Chowdhury has said that its prime focus is to restore law and order in Bangladesh (The Hindu). This statement has come in the wake of possible attacks that minorities are facing which led them to start protesting. An effective strategy to handle the crisis is crucial to protect the civil rights and liberties of every section of society. The constitution mandates only 90 days of interim government. Elections do not seem to be a priority right now, however, after restoring the democratic setup of the country and taking all political parties including the opposition into confidence, democratic elections must be the first line of action. The current situation does not seem as if it will be settled soon due to the unresolved issues of economic mess surrounding which the student protests began.
There is hope for people-centric policies as the interim government has the popular support and it needs to focus on the people’s demands. Anu Muhammad writes that inquiry committees should be formed to investigate killings during protests, corruption by officials and loan defaults. It should also focus on economic policy such as controlling inflation, analysing foreign loans and addressing the unemployment situation. Redefining bilateral and multi-lateral relations with South Asia and beyond should also be on the government's agenda to assure the international community of its commitment to restoring a full-time democratically elected government.
Neighbouring countries must be assured that there will not be any border crossings of people from Bangladesh to neighbouring areas which could ignite civil unrest. The Chief Advisor has already indicated favourable policy support for Rohingyas in his first policy speech in the presence of UN officials to reassure the international community about its commitment to addressing the situation as soon as possible (Democracy Now). The initial steps of the interim government have initiated a ray of hope among investors and companies both local and multinational to resume their operations. The UN chief has also assured full support to restore democratic institutions in the country. However, an effective restoration of law and order situation needs to be observed.
References
AKIYAMA, F. Bangladesh crisis leaves global markets bracing for economic impact. Retrieved from Nikkei Asia: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bangladesh-crisis-leaves-global-markets-bracing-for-economic-impact
Associates, D. S. Bangladesh as a gateway between ASEAN and SAARC. Retrieved from ASEAN Briefing: https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/bangladesh-as-a-gateway-between-asean-and-saarc/
Bangla, V. VOA South & Central Asia. Retrieved from VOA News: https://www.voanews.com/a/in-bangladesh-religious-minorities-targeted-during-political-unrest/7750077.html
Bank, A. D. Economic forecasts of Bangladesh. Retrieved from Asian Development Bank: https://www.adb.org/where-we-work/bangladesh/economy
Bhaumik, S. The leader who lost the touch with Bangladesh. Retrieved from The Hindu: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-leader-who-lost-touch-with-bangladesh/article68497948.ece
Gen., S. b. Bimstec Panel Discussion in February 2024, Pert Australia. Retrieved from BIMSTEC:
Ghosh, S. Bangladeshi Hindus Still waiting to cross into India. Retrieved from DW: https://www.dw.com/en/bangladeshi-hindus-still-waiting-to-cross-into-india/video-70012769
Group, W. B. Foreign Direct Investments, net inflows (BoP, current US$)- Bangladesh. Retrieved from World Bank Group: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?end=2022&locations=BD&start=2009
Hindu, T.. Hasina's paradoxical rule- economic progress, democratic regression. Retrieved from Pressreader: https://www.pressreader.com/india/the-hindu-kochi-9WW8/20240806/281801404244309
Muhammad, A. What the interim government needs to do urgently. Retrieved from The Daily Star: https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/views/news/what-the-interim-government-needs-do-urgently-3683466
Now, D. Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus vows to help Rohingya Refugees who fled Burma. Retrieved from Democracy Now: https://www.democracynow.org/2024/8/19/headlines/bangladeshs_interim_leader_muhammad_yunus_vows_to_help_rohingya_refugees_who_fled_burma
PTI. Bangladesh's interim government focused on improving law and order situation, says new security adviser. Retrieved from The Hindu: https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/bangladeshs-interim-government-focused-on-improving-law-and-order-situation-says-new-security-adviser/article68542654.ece
Reuters. S&P cuts Bangladesh's debt rating to 'B+' from 'BB'. Retrieved from Nikkei Asia: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/S-P-cuts-Bangladesh-s-debt-rating-to-B-from-BB
Reuters. Troubled Bangladesh's economy bogged down by high unemployment, inflation.
Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/troubled-bangladeshs-economy-bogged-down-by-high-unemployment-inflation-2024-08-08/
Solanki, R. R. Bangladesh: domestic turmoil and regional insecuirty. Retrieved from IISS: https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2024/08/bangladesh-domestic-turmoil-and-regional-insecurity/
UNHCR. Bangladesh Rohingya Emergency. Retrieved from UNHCR Philippines: https://www.unhcr.org/ph/campaigns/rohingya-emergency
Comments